Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears?

Recent research shows that journal reviewing practices are neither objective nor fair. I propose a procedure to increase the likelihood of publishing important papers. This will be tested by Interfaces for a year.publication, review, peers, fairness

The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship

The Winter 1979 issues of Directors and Boards presented readers with a questionnaire based to a degree on a 1969 board incident at Upjohn Corporation [see Box 1 (on page 2) and Box 2 (on pages 3-4)]. In this questionnaire, a profitable drug named “Wondola” was being produced by the so-called International Drug Corporation (IDC). Readers were told that members of the American Medical Association's Council on Drugs had objected to the sale of most fixed -ratio (combination) drugs on the grounds that they grant no benefits superior to those of single- ingredient drugs, and are more likely to produce detrimental side effects, including death. Wondola, with an approximated fatality record of 14 to 22 deaths per year, was no exception. The Federal Drug Administration had asked IDC to withdraw the drug. Readers were asked how they would have voted at a board meeting called to resolve the withdrawal issue. Several months after the publication of the first questionnaire, follow-up questionnaires were sent to D&B readers and to select corporate constituents. These letters solicited comments on a “stakeholder” theory of board membership which I proposed in conjunction with the Wondola experiment. In the following pages, I present the background of the experiment. The stakeholder theory will then be proposed as a solution to the “responsiblity dilemma” the Wondola case raises. Finally, questionnaire respondents will speak for themselves on this complex issue.stakeholder theory, responsiblity dilemma, drug,

Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings

This paper identifies and analyses previously published studies on annual earnings forecasts. Comparisons of forecasts produced by management, analysts, and extrapolative techniques indicated that: (1) management forecasts were superior to professional analyst forecasts (the mean absolute percentage errors were 15.9 and 17.7, respectively, based on five studies using data from 1967-1974) and (2) judgmental forecasts (both management and analysts) were superior to extrapolation forecasts on 14 of 17 comparisons from 13 studies using data from 1964- 1979 (the mean absolute percentage errors were 21.0 and 28.4 for judgment and extrapolation, respectively). These conclusions, based on recent research, differ from those reported in previous reviews, which commented on less than half of the studies identified here.Annual, financial forecasts, Judgment vs. extrapolation, Management vs. analyst Amalgamated forecasts

Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals

My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria are useful for identifying whether findings are important: replication, validity, and usefulness. A fourth criterion, surprise, applies in some situations. Based on these criteria, important findings resulting from academic research in marketing seem to be rare. To a large extent, this rarity is due to a reward system that is built around subjective peer review. Rather than using peer review as a secret screening process, using an open process likely will improve papers and inform readers. Researchers, journals, business schools, funding agencies, and professional organizations can all contribute to improving the process. For example, researchers should do directed research on papers that contribute to principles. Journals should invite papers that contribute to principles. Business school administrators should reward researchers who make important findings. Funding agencies should base decisions on researchers' prior success in making important findings, and professional organizations should maintain web sites that describe what is known about principles and what research is needed on principles.marketing, marketing findings

How Expert Are the Experts?

If you want good forecasts for your industry, you should hire the best experts. Right? Well, maybe not.experts, forecast

Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula

Recently I completed a review of the empirical research on scientific journals (Armstrong 1982). This review provided evidence for an “author’s formula,” a set of rules that authors can use to increase the likelihood and speed of acceptance of their manuscripts. Authors should: (1) not pick an important problem, (2) not challenge existing beliefs, (3) not obtain surprising results, (4) not use simple methods, (5) not provide full disclosure, and (6) not write clearly. Peters & Ceci (P&C) are obviously ignorant of the author’s formula. In their extension of the Kosinski study (Ross 1979; 1980), they broke most of the rules. Why, then, is P&C’s paper being published? In my search for an explanation, I learned the following from Peters: (a) After a long delay, the paper was rejected by Science, with advice that it would be appropriate for the American Psychologist. (b) After a long delay, the paper was rejected by the American Psychologist. This history illustrates the predictive power of the author’s formula. Submission was meanwhile encouraged by the editor of the Behavioral and Brain Sciences – a journal specializing in peer interaction on controversial papers – and, after a final round of major revision, the paper was accepted for publication. In this commentary, I describe how P&C violated many rules in the author’s formula. It may be too late to salvage their careers, but the discussion should be instructive to other authors.barriers, scientific contriution, publication

The Graffiti Problem

Graffiti is regarded by many as a blight on our cities because it contributes to visual pollution. City governments spend vast sums in an effort to clean the ubiquitous graffiti from urban walls. I suggest that the “cleansing strategy” is an expensive, ineffective way of dealing with the problem; well-known management techniques can solve the problem more efficiently.graffiti problem, cleansing strategy, management

Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance

A quantitative critique of 28 studies concludes that formal planning is valuable for firms. The results were particularly favorable for manufacturing firms: nine studies found formal planning to be associated with better performance and none found detrimental performance.strategic planning, manufacturing performance

Review of Don A. Dillman's Mail and Telephone Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978.

Recently, I sent postcards to many people. The same week, Dr. X sent me a postcard with nearly identical wording. What happened? Both Dr. X and I had been influenced by Dillman’s Mail and Telephone Surveys. Despite its flaws, it is a worthwhile book. I keep this book near me when working on surveys, and I suspect it will have a strong influence on survey research. This review gives a description of the content of Dillman’s book. It goes on to describe the flaws not only to alert the reader but also in the hope that Dillman will write a new edition to overcome these problems. He could convert a gold book into an excellent one.Don Dillman, surveys, telephone, review

Designing and Using Experiential Exercises

Experiential learning refers to learning which uses the learner’s experience as a base. This definition implies an active and personal approach to learning. A more operational definition is provided below. While experiential learning has been gaining rapidly in popularity, the evidence on its value is mixed. Wolfe [1] presents evidence suggesting that experiential learning is not superior to traditional methods for transmitting knowledge. Similar results were found by Cherryholmes [2] in a survey of what would appear to be experiential methods; participants did not learn more facts, nor did they retain more facts, nor did they develop more critical thinking abilities. On the other hand, the participants did report more interest in the subject and there was more attitude change. Rather than asking whether experiential learning is superior, one might recast the question in terms of when experiential learning is superior. This paper describes the conditions under which experiential learning is useful. This description is followed by a discussion of how to design an experiential exercise. It concludes with suggestions on how experiential learning may be introduced into current educational systems. Relevant empirical literature is described.experiential exercises, experiential learning, learning, education